从地震成丛现象通用模型来解释前震和Båth定律

 Explaining foreshock and the Bath law using a generic earthquake clustering model

庄建仓 教授

日本统计数理研究所

2023.03.31（星期五）15:00，理科二号楼2821

报告摘要：

This talk discusses the ETAS model, which is widely used in seismology for describing clustering features of the earthquake process, and to what degree this model can explain the foreshock phenomenon and the Båth law. Based on the ETAS model, which is a branching model with two empirical exponential laws, the positive exponential law for the expected number of earthquakes that an earthquake can trigger, and the well-known Gutenberg-Richter law (negative exponential distribution) for earthquake magnitude, this study shows that the magnitude distribution of the largest descendant from a given event determines the foreshock probabilities and deduces the Båth law from the asymptotic form of this magnitude distribution, both of which are close to the values of actual seismicity data. The author also comments on the results obtained in previous research.

报告人简介：

庄建仓，日本情报系统研究机构统计数理研究所教授教授，中国地震局地球物理研究所和地震预测研究所客座研究员，中国地震实验场研究员，伦敦数学实验室外部研究员。2003年3月于日本综合研究大学院大学统计科学系获得理学博士学位。2003年到2007年先后在日本统计数理研究所、美国加州洛杉矶大学进行博士后研究工作。2007年7月至今先后在统计数理研究所任助教、准教授、教授。主要研究方向为随机点过程理论、统计地震学和贝叶斯分析。在Nature Comm., JGR、GRL、GJI等期刊上共发100多篇论文。